Union Espanola 1-1 Fluminense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 24 Apr 2025

📅24/04/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.27
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
65%
1.64
Over
35%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.88
No
59%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
36%
2.57
2-3
41%
1.73
4-5
16%
4.21
6+
7%
21.35
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.57 — our 36% vs market 31.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.48
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
5%
13.2
X/1
10%
5.18
X/2
13%
6.35
X/X
17%
4.01
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
13%
4.75
2/X
9%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 65%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
40%
-3.8pp
31%
Draw
29%
+1.6pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+2.3pp
65%
Under 2.5
57%
+8.0pp
35%
Over 2.5
43%
-8.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.7pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Espanola EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Fluminense EU Bookmakers 34%
-58% / -58% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
0.62/0.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.14/0.60
-100% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / +150%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
316 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 75%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 2.0
23.0 Crosses 14.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Espanola
1-1
AWAY Fluminense
1.28 xG 0.58
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 1
406 Passes 382
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 10
16 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Union Espanola vs Fluminense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Espanola and Fluminense couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 31% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (65%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Union Espanola had 51% of the ball to Fluminense's 49%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.28 to 0.58.

What was the final score of Union Espanola vs Fluminense?

Union Espanola 1-1 Fluminense in the Copa Sudamericana on 24/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Espanola vs Fluminense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Espanola win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Union Espanola 36%, draw 31%, Fluminense 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Union Espanola), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Union Espanola) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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