Caracas FC 1-1 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 24 Apr 2025

📅24/04/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.4
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
49%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under
53%
1.74
Over
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.13
No Pick
54%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2.75
2-3
38%
1.74
4-5
19%
3.91
6+
11%
18.15
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.75 — our 32% vs market 29.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
11.4
1/2
5%
26.5
1/X
6%
20.3
X/1
8%
12.4
X/2
19%
3.79
X/X
14%
5.06
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
24%
1.92
2/X
8%
17.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
16%
+8.7pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.1pp
49%
Away Win
62%
-12.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-0.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+0.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
43%
+3.0pp
54%
BTTS No
57%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caracas FC EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 66%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
258 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 409 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caracas FC
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
0.62 xG 2.37
24% Ball Possession 76%
6 Total Shots 23
2 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 4
152 Passes 684
64% Pass Accuracy 92%
8 Box Touches 34
8 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 4
29.05.2024 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 4-0 HT 2-0 Caracas FC Caracas FC LKU
05.04.2024 Caracas FC Caracas FC 1-4 HT 0-3 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caracas FC
1-1
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
0.97 xG 1.25
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 6
275 Passes 448
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
8 Box Touches 31
8 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Caracas FC vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caracas FC and Atletico Mineiro couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Mineiro at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Caracas FC had 39% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 61%, shots finished 7-17, expected goals 0.97 to 1.25.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Atletico Mineiro led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Caracas FC and 4.00 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Caracas FC vs Atletico Mineiro?

Caracas FC 1-1 Atletico Mineiro in the Copa Sudamericana on 24/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caracas FC vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Caracas FC 24%, draw 27%, Atletico Mineiro 49%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Mineiro), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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