Atletico Mineiro 4-0 Caracas FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 29 May 2024

📅29/05/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
66%
1.16
Draw
20%
7.78
Away
14%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
42%
2.98
Over
58%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.51
No
60%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1
19%
7.46
2-3
43%
2.24
4-5
27%
2.43
6+
11%
4.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
44%
1.15
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
34.5
X/1
15%
3.46
X/2
4%
34.5
X/X
9%
15.15
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
6%
34.5
2/X
5%
34.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Atletico Mineiro win — 66%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
82%
-16.7pp
20%
Draw
10%
+9.5pp
14%
Away Win
7%
+7.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
30%
+12.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
70%
-12.2pp
40%
BTTS Yes
36%
+4.1pp
60%
BTTS No
64%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Caracas FC EU Bookmakers 9%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
2.14/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/2.68
-2% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -36%
62% Ball Possession 38%
21 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
456 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 73%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.2
21.6 Crosses 9.9
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Mineiro
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Caracas FC
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.01 xG 1.19
73% Ball Possession 27%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
728 Passes 213
92% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 12
05.04.2024 Caracas FC Caracas FC 1-4 HT 0-3 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Mineiro
4-0
AWAY Caracas FC
2.72 xG 0.05
80% Ball Possession 20%
32 Total Shots 2
12 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 1
639 Passes 91
92% Pass Accuracy 54%
41 Box Touches 2
32 Crosses 4
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Atletico Mineiro vs Caracas FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Mineiro swept aside Caracas FC 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Atletico Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 80% of the ball to Caracas FC's 20%, shots finished 32-2, expected goals 2.72 to 0.05.

What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Caracas FC?

Atletico Mineiro 4-0 Caracas FC in the Copa Libertadores on 29/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Caracas FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 66%, draw 20%, Caracas FC 14%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Mineiro), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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