CA Penarol 2-1 Rosario Central — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 29 May 2024

📅29/05/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.9
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
24%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
1.51
Over
44%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.16
No
52%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2.25
2-3
46%
1.79
4-5
18%
5.49
6+
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.68
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.25
X/1
9%
3.97
X/2
6%
7.9
X/X
18%
3.71
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
12%
6.99
2/X
7%
16.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-5.0pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.4pp
24%
Away Win
23%
+1.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
62%
-6.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
38%
+6.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.9pp
52%
BTTS No
58%
-5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Rosario Central EU Bookmakers 26%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.67/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.62/2.07
-47% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
329 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 74%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.0
25.3 Crosses 18.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 5.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Penarol
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Rosario Central
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.22 xG 0.50
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
295 Passes 203
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
15 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
05.04.2024 Rosario Central Rosario Central 1-0 HT 1-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Penarol
2-1
AWAY Rosario Central
1.78 xG 0.88
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
183 Passes 266
62% Pass Accuracy 69%
13 Box Touches 14
11 Crosses 19
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH CA Penarol vs Rosario Central
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol nicked a narrow win over Rosario Central 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had CA Penarol as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, CA Penarol had 44% of the ball to Rosario Central's 56%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 1.78 to 0.88.

What was the final score of CA Penarol vs Rosario Central?

CA Penarol 2-1 Rosario Central in the Copa Libertadores on 29/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Penarol vs Rosario Central?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split CA Penarol 44%, draw 32%, Rosario Central 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CA Penarol) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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