Rosario Central 1-0 CA Penarol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 5 Apr 2024

📅05/04/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.05
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
21%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.51
Over 2.5
46%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.13
No
52%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.23
2-3 Goals
35%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
5.54
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.06
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.05
X/1
24%
4.24
X/2
5%
6.65
X/X
11%
3.7
2/1
9%
32.5
2/2
11%
5.73
2/X
11%
15.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
45%
+3.9pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.0pp
21%
Away Win
26%
-4.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
62%
-8.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
38%
+8.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.9pp
52%
BTTS No
57%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rosario Central EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -32% / -34%
2.86/0.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/2.02
+107% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / -33%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
Crosses 20.1
Yellow Cards 1.9
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rosario Central
1-0
AWAY CA Penarol
0.50 xG 1.22
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
203 Passes 295
72% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Rosario Central vs CA Penarol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rosario Central squeezed past CA Penarol 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Rosario Central as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Rosario Central had 42% of the ball to CA Penarol's 58%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 0.50 to 1.22 — on chances, CA Penarol could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Rosario Central vs CA Penarol?

Rosario Central 1-0 CA Penarol in the Copa Libertadores on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rosario Central vs CA Penarol?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rosario Central win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Rosario Central 49%, draw 30%, CA Penarol 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rosario Central), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rosario Central) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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