Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 1-1 Independiente Del Valle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 5 Apr 2024

Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
1-1 HT 0-1
Independiente Del Valle
📅05/04/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Copa Libertadores – 2024

Liverpool FC (Montevideo) vs Independiente Del Valle Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
3.32
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
33%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.62
Over 2.5
39%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.96
No
58%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.59
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.54
6+ Goals
7%
24.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.59 — our 34% vs market 32.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
5.77
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
9%
14.75
X/1
14%
7.09
X/2
12%
4.29
X/X
12%
4.06
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
15%
2.85
2/X
7%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
27%
+12.0pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.1pp
33%
Away Win
45%
-11.8pp
61%
Under 2.5
58%
+3.3pp
39%
Over 2.5
42%
-3.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.1pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Liverpool FC (Montevideo) v Independiente Del Valle — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool FC (Montevideo) EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 49%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -57% / -57%
1.23/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.21
-46% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -12%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
228 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 79%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
19.9 Crosses 15.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7

Liverpool FC (Montevideo) vs Independiente Del Valle Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.88 xG 1.62
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
248 Passes 509
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
10 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
25.05.2023 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 1-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle LKU
19.04.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-0 HT 1-0 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) LKU

Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 1-1 Independiente Del Valle — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
1-1
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
0.36 xG 1.10
37% Ball Possession 63%
14 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
227 Passes 465
71% Pass Accuracy 83%
10 Box Touches 13
12 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Liverpool FC (Montevideo) vs Independiente Del Valle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool FC (Montevideo) and Independiente Del Valle couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (61%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Liverpool FC (Montevideo) had 37% of the ball to Independiente Del Valle's 63%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 0.36 to 1.10.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Liverpool FC (Montevideo) and 1.00 for Independiente Del Valle.

What was the final score of Liverpool FC (Montevideo) vs Independiente Del Valle?

Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 1-1 Independiente Del Valle in the Copa Libertadores on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool FC (Montevideo) vs Independiente Del Valle?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liverpool FC (Montevideo) win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 39%, draw 28%, Independiente Del Valle 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Liverpool FC (Montevideo)), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Liverpool FC (Montevideo)) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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