Palestino 0-4 Bolivar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 5 Apr 2024

Palestino
0-4 HT 0-2
Bolivar
📅05/04/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Copa Libertadores – 2024

Palestino vs Bolivar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.66
No
53%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
3.94
2-3 Goals
46%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.14
6+ Goals
9%
10.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.94 — our 23% vs market 20.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.3
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.0
X/1
14%
4.17
X/2
9%
8.79
X/X
9%
5.22
2/1
6%
22.7
2/2 EV+ ✓
17%
6.5
2/X
5%
14.6
Value flag · 2/2 at 6.5 — our 17% vs market 11.3%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
52%
-3.5pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.6pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+6.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.7pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+9.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Palestino v Bolivar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palestino EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Bolivar EU Bookmakers 28%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.39/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.47/1.81
+17% / -65% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -75% / +36%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
367 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 74%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.1
18.2 Crosses 16.4
4.2 Yellow Cards 2.8

Palestino 0-4 Bolivar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palestino
0-4
AWAY Bolivar
0.96 xG 3.90
37% Ball Possession 63%
16 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 12
8 Corners 6
200 Passes 415
71% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 31
17 Crosses 11
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Palestino vs Bolivar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bolivar swept aside Palestino 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Palestino at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Palestino had 37% of the ball to Bolivar's 63%, shots finished 16-22, expected goals 0.96 to 3.90.

What was the final score of Palestino vs Bolivar?

Palestino 0-4 Bolivar in the Copa Libertadores on 05/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palestino vs Bolivar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palestino win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Palestino 48%, draw 22%, Bolivar 30%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Palestino) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Palestino) ✓ BTTS No
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