29/05/2024
·
03:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-0
2nd Score
1-0
Bolivar vs Palestino Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.93
— our 23% vs market 15.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Bolivar win — 57% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Home Win
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
67%
23%
Draw
20%
20%
Away Win
13%
44%
Under 2.5
38%
56%
Over 2.5
62%
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
49%
BTTS No
47%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Bolivar v Palestino — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Bolivar
EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY
Palestino
EU Bookmakers 16%
-8% /
-7%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+11% /
+11%
1.76/0.83
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.84/1.94
-12%
/
-27%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+4%
/
+32%
54%
Ball Possession
46%
16
Total Shots
11
6
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
4
326 · 76%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
266 · 74%
20.9
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
13.1
26.2
Crosses
13.5
2.2
Yellow Cards
3.9
Bolivar vs Palestino Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Bolivar
1W-0D-0L
AWAY
Palestino
4.00
Avg Goals (FT)
0.00
3.90
xG
0.96
63%
Ball Possession
37%
22
Total Shots
16
12
Shots on Target
3
6
Corners
8
415
Passes
200
84%
Pass Accuracy
71%
31
Box Touches
22
11
Crosses
17
1
Yellow Cards
5
The Meetings
Bolivar 3-1 Palestino — Actual Match Statistics
RESULT
Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME
Bolivar
3-1
AWAY
Palestino
0.90
xG
1.10
72%
Ball Possession
28%
19
Total Shots
15
7
Shots on Target
6
6
Corners
2
461
Passes
142
90%
Pass Accuracy
70%
16
Box Touches
21
17
Crosses
7
1
Yellow Cards
2
POST-MATCH
Bolivar vs Palestino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Bolivar beat Palestino 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bolivar as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.
On the day, Bolivar had 72% of the ball to Palestino's 28%, shots finished 19-15, expected goals 0.90 to 1.10.
What was the final score of Bolivar vs Palestino?
Bolivar 3-1 Palestino in the Copa Libertadores on 29/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Bolivar vs Palestino?
Before kick-off our model rated a Bolivar win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Bolivar 57%, draw 23%, Palestino 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bolivar), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Bolivar)
✓ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS Yes
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LKU
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29 May 2024