29/05/2024
·
03:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-0
2nd Score
1-0
Flamengo vs Millonarios Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.87
— our 25% vs market 15.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
18%
X/2
5%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
4%
2/X
4%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Flamengo win — 66% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Home Win
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
80%
21%
Draw
14%
13%
Away Win
6%
47%
Under 2.5
38%
53%
Over 2.5
62%
43%
BTTS Yes
38%
57%
BTTS No
62%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Flamengo v Millonarios — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Flamengo
EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY
Millonarios
EU Bookmakers 9%
+4% /
+9%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-7% /
-7%
2.45/0.69
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.82/1.52
+24%
/
+32%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-17%
/
+0%
62%
Ball Possession
38%
17
Total Shots
9
7
Shots on Target
3
6
Corners
4
432 · 83%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
227 · 72%
30.9
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
11.0
16.4
Crosses
12.2
1.6
Yellow Cards
2.9
Flamengo vs Millonarios Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Flamengo
0W-1D-0L
AWAY
Millonarios
1.00
Avg Goals (FT)
1.00
1.62
xG
1.69
54%
Ball Possession
46%
9
Total Shots
16
2
Shots on Target
2
4
Corners
5
374
Passes
304
82%
Pass Accuracy
80%
14
Box Touches
18
10
Crosses
22
1
Yellow Cards
1
The Meetings
Flamengo 3-0 Millonarios — Actual Match Statistics
RESULT
Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME
Flamengo
3-0
AWAY
Millonarios
2.21
xG
0.63
62%
Ball Possession
38%
12
Total Shots
9
6
Shots on Target
3
6
Corners
1
564
Passes
310
89%
Pass Accuracy
78%
24
Box Touches
7
13
Crosses
3
0
Yellow Cards
1
POST-MATCH
Flamengo vs Millonarios
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Flamengo cruised past Millonarios 3-0.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Flamengo as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.
On the day, Flamengo had 62% of the ball to Millonarios's 38%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 2.21 to 0.63.
What was the final score of Flamengo vs Millonarios?
Flamengo 3-0 Millonarios in the Copa Libertadores on 29/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Flamengo vs Millonarios?
Before kick-off our model rated a Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Flamengo 66%, draw 21%, Millonarios 13%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Flamengo), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Flamengo)
✓ Over 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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LKU
More Copa Libertadores
29 May 2024