Libertad 0-2 Sao Paulo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 24 Apr 2025

📅24/04/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
33%
2.83
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.44
Over
42%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.19
No
54%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1
34%
1.95
2-3
39%
1.8
4-5
18%
6.19
6+
9%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.43
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
10%
14.9
X/1
12%
5.51
X/2
10%
5.4
X/X
17%
3.34
2/1
8%
35.0
2/2
15%
4.3
2/X
6%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.2pp
33%
Draw
32%
+0.8pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-0.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
66%
-8.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
34%
+8.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
42%
+4.6pp
54%
BTTS No
58%
-4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 37%
+25% / +28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.28/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/0.79
+33% / +128% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +150%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
266 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 80%
12.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.1
10.3 Crosses 9.1
3.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
7 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
27.10.2011 Libertad Libertad 2-0 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo CON CSA
20.10.2011 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad CON CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
0-2
AWAY Sao Paulo
1.62 xG 0.65
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
290 Passes 468
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
21 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Sao Paulo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo got the better of Libertad 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 33% / 33%) promised a tight game; Sao Paulo found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Libertad had 40% of the ball to Sao Paulo's 60%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 1.62 to 0.65 — on chances, Libertad could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Libertad and 0.50 for Sao Paulo.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Sao Paulo?

Libertad 0-2 Sao Paulo in the Copa Libertadores on 24/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Sao Paulo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Libertad 34%, draw 33%, Sao Paulo 33%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Libertad) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Libertad) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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