Tusker 0-1 TransMara Sugar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 24 Apr 2026

📅24/04/2026 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.27
Draw
37%
2.66
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
Over 2.5
34%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.81
No
49%
1.38
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
14%
X/X
23%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
40%
-5.7pp
37%
Draw
34%
+2.8pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
32%
+19.5pp
49%
BTTS No
68%
-19.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tusker EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY TransMara Sugar EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +7%
0.86/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.05
-13% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
287 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tusker
2W-1D-0L
AWAY TransMara Sugar
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
28 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 0
29.11.2025 TransMara Sugar TransMara Sugar 0-1 HT 0-1 Tusker Tusker KEN
06.04.2025 TransMara Sugar TransMara Sugar 1-1 HT 0-0 Tusker Tusker KEN
27.11.2024 Tusker Tusker 2-1 HT 1-1 TransMara Sugar TransMara Sugar KEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tusker
0-1
AWAY TransMara Sugar
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 21
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tusker vs TransMara Sugar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

TransMara Sugar edged past Tusker 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 37% / 29%) promised a tight game; TransMara Sugar found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (66%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Tusker had 59% of the ball to TransMara Sugar's 41%, shots finished 15-21.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Tusker had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Tusker and 0.67 for TransMara Sugar.

What was the final score of Tusker vs TransMara Sugar?

Tusker 0-1 TransMara Sugar in the Kenya - Premier League on 24/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tusker vs TransMara Sugar?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Tusker 35%, draw 37%, TransMara Sugar 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Draw), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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