Başakşehir FK 4-0 Kasımpaşa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 24 Apr 2026

📅24/04/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.66
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
19%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.0
Over 2.5
56%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.63
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
26%
3.12
6+ Goals
10%
10.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
2.15
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
13%
4.29
X/2
7%
9.53
X/X
11%
5.3
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
22.25
2/2
8%
7.37
2/X
6%
15.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.25 — our 11% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
56%
+2.4pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.9pp
19%
Away Win
20%
-1.5pp
44%
Under 2.5
46%
-2.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
54%
+2.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.9pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Başakşehir FK EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 24%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +19%
1.81/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.76
+18% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +56% / -7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
363 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 80%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
18.8 Crosses 16.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Başakşehir FK
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Kasımpaşa
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.38 xG 1.14
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
311 Passes 316
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.11.2025 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 1-3 HT 0-2 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
18.05.2025 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 2-3 HT 1-1 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
23.12.2024 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 2-2 HT 2-1 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
05.05.2024 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 4-1 HT 2-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
09.01.2024 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 0-3 HT 0-1 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
21.01.2023 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 1-3 HT 1-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Başakşehir FK
4-0
AWAY Kasımpaşa
2.22 xG 0.24
68% Ball Possession 32%
14 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
536 Passes 203
92% Pass Accuracy 75%
25 Box Touches 9
29 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Başakşehir FK vs Kasımpaşa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Başakşehir FK swept aside Kasımpaşa 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Başakşehir FK as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Başakşehir FK had 68% of the ball to Kasımpaşa's 32%, shots finished 14-5, expected goals 2.22 to 0.24.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Başakşehir FK had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Başakşehir FK and 1.17 for Kasımpaşa.

What was the final score of Başakşehir FK vs Kasımpaşa?

Başakşehir FK 4-0 Kasımpaşa in the Turkey - Super League on 24/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Başakşehir FK vs Kasımpaşa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Başakşehir FK win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Başakşehir FK 58%, draw 23%, Kasımpaşa 19%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Başakşehir FK), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Başakşehir FK) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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