NEC vs Mbarara City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
NEC v Mbarara City — Team-Based Signals
NEC vs Mbarara City Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
NEC
UGA
NEC 1-0 Mbarara City — Actual Match Statistics
NEC squeezed past Mbarara City 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had NEC as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, NEC had 60% of the ball to Mbarara City's 40%, shots finished 25-9.
For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, NEC had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for NEC and 0.00 for Mbarara City.
What was the final score of NEC vs Mbarara City?
NEC 1-0 Mbarara City in the Uganda - Premier League on 24/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for NEC vs Mbarara City?
Before kick-off our model rated a NEC win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split NEC 67%, draw 22%, Mbarara City 11%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.