NEC 1-0 Mbarara City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 24 Apr 2026

📅24/04/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.3
Draw
22%
4.62
Away
11%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.75
No
60%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
20%
X/2
3%
X/X
14%
2/1
10%
2/2
5%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
72%
-5.1pp
22%
Draw
18%
+3.4pp
11%
Away Win
9%
+1.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
32%
+7.4pp
60%
BTTS No
68%
-7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Mbarara City EU Bookmakers 12%
+11% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
1.25/0.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.86
-38% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -3%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
355 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 204 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC
4W-0D-0L
AWAY Mbarara City
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 3
01.11.2025 Mbarara City Mbarara City 0-1 HT 0-0 NEC NEC UGA
04.01.2025 NEC NEC 1-0 HT 0-0 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
09.02.2024 NEC NEC 2-0 HT 1-0 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
15.09.2023 Mbarara City Mbarara City 0-1 HT 0-0 NEC NEC UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC
1-0
AWAY Mbarara City
60% Ball Possession 40%
25 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NEC vs Mbarara City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC squeezed past Mbarara City 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had NEC as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, NEC had 60% of the ball to Mbarara City's 40%, shots finished 25-9.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, NEC had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for NEC and 0.00 for Mbarara City.

What was the final score of NEC vs Mbarara City?

NEC 1-0 Mbarara City in the Uganda - Premier League on 24/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC vs Mbarara City?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split NEC 67%, draw 22%, Mbarara City 11%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (NEC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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