Tukums II 1-2 Smiltene — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 24 May 2025

📅24/05/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.67
Draw
28%
4.08
Away
32%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
Over 2.5
55%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.5
No
45%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
33%
+6.9pp
28%
Draw
21%
+7.4pp
32%
Away Win
46%
-14.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
62%
-7.5pp
45%
BTTS No
38%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tukums II EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Smiltene EU Bookmakers 50%
+16% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+25% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
400 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tukums II
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Smiltene
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
0 Corners 3
25.08.2024 Tukums II Tukums II 1-2 HT 1-2 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
28.04.2024 Smiltene Smiltene 0-2 HT 0-1 Tukums II Tukums II LET1
16.09.2023 Smiltene Smiltene 0-3 HT 0-2 Tukums II Tukums II LET1
14.05.2023 Tukums II Tukums II 2-1 HT 0-1 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
POST-MATCH Tukums II vs Smiltene
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Smiltene squeezed past Tukums II 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; Smiltene found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Tukums II had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Tukums II and 0.75 for Smiltene.

What was the final score of Tukums II vs Smiltene?

Tukums II 1-2 Smiltene in the Latvia - 1st Division on 24/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tukums II vs Smiltene?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tukums II win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Tukums II 40%, draw 28%, Smiltene 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tukums II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tukums II) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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