Smiltene 0-2 Tukums II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 28 Apr 2024

Smiltene
0-2 HT 0-1
Tukums II
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Latvia - 1st Division – 2024

Smiltene vs Tukums II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.67
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
47%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.38
Over 2.5
63%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.49
No
48%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
8%
X/2
19%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
23%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
34%
-4.3pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.3pp
47%
Away Win
43%
+3.9pp
37%
Under 2.5
38%
-1.2pp
63%
Over 2.5
62%
+1.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
63%
-10.8pp
48%
BTTS No
37%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Smiltene v Tukums II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smiltene EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Tukums II EU Bookmakers 48%
-32% / -32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
0.31/2.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/0.47
-82% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +150%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
392 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Smiltene vs Tukums II Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smiltene
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Tukums II
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
3 Corners 0
The Meetings
16.09.2023 Smiltene Smiltene 0-3 HT 0-2 Tukums II Tukums II LET1
14.05.2023 Tukums II Tukums II 2-1 HT 0-1 Smiltene Smiltene LET1
POST-MATCH Smiltene vs Tukums II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tukums II beat Smiltene 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Tukums II as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (63%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Tukums II led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Smiltene and 2.50 for Tukums II.

What was the final score of Smiltene vs Tukums II?

Smiltene 0-2 Tukums II in the Latvia - 1st Division on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smiltene vs Tukums II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Tukums II win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Smiltene 29%, draw 23%, Tukums II 47%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tukums II) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tukums II) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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