28/04/2024
·
13:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
1-1
JDFS Alberts vs Super Nova Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
12%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
24%
2/X
7%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
29%
23%
Draw
24%
43%
Away Win
47%
48%
Under 2.5
39%
52%
Over 2.5
61%
50%
BTTS Yes
62%
50%
BTTS No
38%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
JDFS Alberts v Super Nova — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
JDFS Alberts
EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY
Super Nova
EU Bookmakers 51%
+5% /
+5%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
-26%
/
+78%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
47%
Ball Possession
53%
11
Total Shots
13
4
Shots on Target
5
5
Corners
6
366 · 78%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
357 · 77%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
JDFS Alberts vs Super Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Super Nova saw off JDFS Alberts 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Super Nova as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
What was the final score of JDFS Alberts vs Super Nova?
JDFS Alberts 0-2 Super Nova in the Latvia - 1st Division on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for JDFS Alberts vs Super Nova?
Before kick-off our model rated an Super Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split JDFS Alberts 34%, draw 23%, Super Nova 43%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Super Nova) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Super Nova)
✗ Over 2.5
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28 Apr 2024