Sporting Gijon 3-1 Almeria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 24 May 2026

📅24/05/2026 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.94
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
41%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.29
Over 2.5
55%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.5
No
43%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.45
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
2.76
6+ Goals
11%
7.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.59
1/2
6%
21.4
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
14%
7.06
X/2
13%
5.09
X/X
12%
5.6
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
28.5
2/2
22%
2.77
2/X
5%
12.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.5 — our 7% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
30%
+5.4pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.5pp
41%
Away Win
45%
-4.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
40%
+5.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
60%
-5.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
62%
-5.2pp
43%
BTTS No
38%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Gijon EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Almeria EU Bookmakers 49%
+7% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +0%
1.24/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/1.19
+24% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / -33%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
299 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 80%
16.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
16.2 Crosses 17.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Gijon
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Almeria
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.12 xG 1.85
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
322 Passes 431
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 32
17 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.09.2025 Almeria Almeria 2-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
22.02.2025 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 1-1 HT 0-1 Almeria Almeria İS2
31.08.2024 Almeria Almeria 1-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
25.04.2022 Almeria Almeria 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon İS2
02.11.2021 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 0-1 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
30.05.2021 Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 0-2 HT 0-0 Almeria Almeria İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Gijon
3-1
AWAY Almeria
36% Ball Possession 64%
13 Total Shots 20
8 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 8
202 Passes 427
72% Pass Accuracy 86%
POST-MATCH Sporting Gijon vs Almeria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Gijon beat Almeria 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 23% / 41%) promised a tight game; Sporting Gijon found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Sporting Gijon had 36% of the ball to Almeria's 64%, shots finished 13-20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Almeria led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sporting Gijon and 1.33 for Almeria.

What was the final score of Sporting Gijon vs Almeria?

Sporting Gijon 3-1 Almeria in the Spain - 2nd Division on 24/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Gijon vs Almeria?

Before kick-off our model rated an Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Sporting Gijon 36%, draw 23%, Almeria 41%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Almeria) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Almeria) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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