Cruzeiro 2-1 Chapecoense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 24 May 2026

📅24/05/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.3
Draw
20%
4.95
Away
11%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.29
Over 2.5
49%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.39
2-3 Goals
40%
1.86
4-5 Goals
22%
2.79
6+ Goals
11%
7.82
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.39 — our 27% vs market 17.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.5
1/2
3%
34.0
1/X
4%
20.35
X/1
27%
3.74
X/2
3%
17.75
X/X
12%
7.58
2/1
11%
21.4
2/2
4%
15.2
2/X
4%
23.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
72%
-2.8pp
20%
Draw
17%
+3.3pp
10%
Away Win
11%
-0.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
40%
+11.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
60%
-11.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.2pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Chapecoense EU Bookmakers 14%
-7% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -4%
1.68/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/2.15
-8% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +2%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
405 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 76%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.7
23.5 Crosses 14.3
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruzeiro
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Chapecoense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.28 xG 0.80
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
392 Passes 266
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 13
26 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
13.08.2022 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 0-1 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
01.05.2022 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-2 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR2
25.11.2020 Chapecoense Chapecoense 0-1 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR2
21.08.2020 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-1 HT 0-1 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR2
14.10.2019 Chapecoense Chapecoense 1-1 HT 0-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
27.05.2019 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-2 HT 0-0 Chapecoense Chapecoense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruzeiro
2-1
AWAY Chapecoense
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 2
425 Passes 195
90% Pass Accuracy 80%
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruzeiro edged past Chapecoense 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cruzeiro as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Cruzeiro had 66% of the ball to Chapecoense's 34%, shots finished 18-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cruzeiro and 0.83 for Chapecoense.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense?

Cruzeiro 2-1 Chapecoense in the Brazil - Serie A on 24/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 69%, draw 20%, Chapecoense 10%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruzeiro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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