Gremio 3-2 Santos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 24 May 2026

📅24/05/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.09
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.68
Over 2.5
52%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.85
No
45%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.68
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
21%
4.04
6+ Goals
11%
19.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.05
1/2
10%
34.0
1/X
9%
13.2
X/1
17%
4.77
X/2
9%
6.69
X/X
9%
4.14
2/1
9%
28.0
2/2
13%
5.15
2/X
6%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
+0.1pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.1pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+4.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
56%
-7.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
44%
+7.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
50%
+5.1pp
45%
BTTS No
50%
-5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos EU Bookmakers 32%
+9% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -11%
1.52/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.41
+20% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
340 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 80%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
19.4 Crosses 21.4
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Santos
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.05 xG 1.36
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
278 Passes 380
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 27
4 Yellow Cards 4
02.10.2025 Santos Santos 1-1 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
04.05.2025 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BR1
20.08.2023 Santos Santos 2-1 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
17.04.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 1-0 Santos Santos BR1
10.10.2021 Santos Santos 1-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
25.06.2021 Gremio Gremio 2-2 HT 2-1 Santos Santos BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
3-2
AWAY Santos
1.92 xG 1.27
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
376 Passes 375
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
15 Box Touches 30
23 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Santos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio squeezed past Santos 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Gremio as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Gremio had 50% of the ball to Santos's 50%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.92 to 1.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Gremio and 1.00 for Santos.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Santos?

Gremio 3-2 Santos in the Brazil - Serie A on 24/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Santos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Gremio 44%, draw 24%, Santos 32%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gremio) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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