Gremio 1-0 Santos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.59
Over 2.5
46%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.53
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
18%
4.93
6+ Goals
9%
27.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.21
1/2
9%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.6
X/1
16%
4.85
X/2
9%
6.81
X/X
13%
3.86
2/1
8%
31.0
2/2
10%
5.44
2/X
6%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
42%
+2.5pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.1pp
28%
Away Win
28%
+0.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.1pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos EU Bookmakers 31%
+10% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -4%
1.41/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.25
+23% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -5%
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
279 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 82%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
16.6 Crosses 19.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Santos
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.42 xG 1.77
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
336 Passes 306
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 4
20.08.2023 Santos Santos 2-1 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
17.04.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 1-0 Santos Santos BR1
10.10.2021 Santos Santos 1-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
25.06.2021 Gremio Gremio 2-2 HT 2-1 Santos Santos BR1
03.02.2021 Gremio Gremio 3-3 HT 1-1 Santos Santos BR1
17.12.2020 Santos Santos 4-1 HT 2-0 Gremio Gremio LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
1-0
AWAY Santos
0.58 xG 0.57
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 6
285 Passes 375
79% Pass Accuracy 86%
11 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 22
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Santos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio edged past Santos 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Gremio as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Gremio had 45% of the ball to Santos's 55%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 0.58 to 0.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santos led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gremio and 2.00 for Santos.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Santos?

Gremio 1-0 Santos in the Brazil - Serie A on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Santos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Gremio 45%, draw 27%, Santos 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gremio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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