Fluminense 2-1 Sport Recife — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 4 May 2025

Fluminense
2-1 HT 0-1
Sport Recife
📅04/05/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Fluminense vs Sport Recife Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
25%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.59
Over 2.5
45%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.16
No
57%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.48
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
5.06
6+ Goals
10%
29.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.36
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
7%
15.65
X/1
10%
4.04
X/2
12%
9.42
X/X
12%
4.14
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
9%
8.52
2/X
7%
17.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-4.1pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.5pp
25%
Away Win
19%
+5.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+1.3pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fluminense v Sport Recife — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 22%
-3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -16%
1.57/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.73
-8% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -13%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
385 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 77%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
23.8 Crosses 18.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.0

Fluminense vs Sport Recife Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Sport Recife
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.51 xG 0.84
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 5
441 Passes 264
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
07.11.2021 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
11.07.2021 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-2 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
17.01.2021 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
21.09.2020 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
12.11.2018 Fluminense Fluminense 0-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
22.07.2018 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-2 HT 1-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1

Fluminense 2-1 Sport Recife — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
2-1
AWAY Sport Recife
1.94 xG 1.04
63% Ball Possession 37%
20 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 6
455 Passes 245
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
42 Box Touches 18
38 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Sport Recife
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense nicked a narrow win over Sport Recife 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fluminense as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fluminense had 63% of the ball to Sport Recife's 37%, shots finished 20-11, expected goals 1.94 to 1.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fluminense and 0.50 for Sport Recife.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Sport Recife?

Fluminense 2-1 Sport Recife in the Brazil - Serie A on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Sport Recife?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 49%, draw 26%, Sport Recife 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fluminense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fluminense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
4 May 2025
00:30 Ceara vs Vitoria Analysis →
00:30 Corinthians vs Internacional Analysis →
03:00 Bahia vs Botafogo Analysis →
22:00 Gremio vs Santos Analysis →
22:00 Vasco da Gama vs Palmeiras Analysis →