Santos 1-1 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 2 Oct 2025

Santos
1-1 HT 0-0
Gremio
📅02/10/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Santos vs Gremio Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.68
Over 2.5
47%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.99
No
48%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.65
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
4.1
6+ Goals
9%
20.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.32
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.7
X/1
23%
4.09
X/2
7%
9.11
X/X
10%
4.42
2/1
8%
26.5
2/2
9%
7.82
2/X
9%
16.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-0.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
22%
Away Win
20%
+1.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
46%
+5.3pp
48%
BTTS No
54%
-5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Santos v Gremio — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 23%
+4% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +13%
1.52/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.69
-1% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
376 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 79%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
24.6 Crosses 12.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3

Santos vs Gremio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Gremio
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.32 xG 1.22
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
346 Passes 319
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
04.05.2025 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BR1
20.08.2023 Santos Santos 2-1 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
17.04.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 1-0 Santos Santos BR1
10.10.2021 Santos Santos 1-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
25.06.2021 Gremio Gremio 2-2 HT 2-1 Santos Santos BR1
03.02.2021 Gremio Gremio 3-3 HT 1-1 Santos Santos BR1

Santos 1-1 Gremio — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos
1-1
AWAY Gremio
2.55 xG 0.70
64% Ball Possession 36%
24 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 0
439 Passes 230
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
37 Box Touches 4
34 Crosses 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Santos vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos and Gremio couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Santos at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Santos had 64% of the ball to Gremio's 36%, shots finished 24-4, expected goals 2.55 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Santos and 1.33 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Santos vs Gremio?

Santos 1-1 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 02/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Santos 53%, draw 25%, Gremio 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Santos) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Santos) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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