Sport Recife 2-2 Fluminense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 2 Oct 2025

📅02/10/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.17
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
44%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.56
Over 2.5
42%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.37
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
4.71
6+ Goals
9%
27.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.5
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
9%
14.5
X/1
8%
6.77
X/2
12%
4.66
X/X
13%
3.83
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
26%
3.11
2/X
6%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
28%
-0.1pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.0pp
44%
Away Win
43%
+1.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
60%
-2.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
40%
+2.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+1.9pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Fluminense EU Bookmakers 48%
+3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -11%
1.13/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/1.35
-7% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -38%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
317 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 83%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
20.5 Crosses 20.4
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sport Recife
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Fluminense
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.87 xG 1.58
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
247 Passes 472
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 30
16 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
04.05.2025 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 0-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
07.11.2021 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
11.07.2021 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-2 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
17.01.2021 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
21.09.2020 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
12.11.2018 Fluminense Fluminense 0-0 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sport Recife
2-2
AWAY Fluminense
1.13 xG 1.96
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 1
318 Passes 344
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 3
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sport Recife vs Fluminense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sport Recife and Fluminense couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Fluminense at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sport Recife had 49% of the ball to Fluminense's 51%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.13 to 1.96.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sport Recife and 1.00 for Fluminense.

What was the final score of Sport Recife vs Fluminense?

Sport Recife 2-2 Fluminense in the Brazil - Serie A on 02/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sport Recife vs Fluminense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Sport Recife 28%, draw 28%, Fluminense 44%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fluminense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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