Palmeiras 3-0 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 2 Oct 2025

📅02/10/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.37
Draw
19%
4.49
Away
18%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.03
Over 2.5
60%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
2.06
No
45%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.63
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.14
6+ Goals
13%
10.7
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.14 — our 28% vs market 25.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1.61
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
4%
19.35
X/1
16%
3.71
X/2
7%
16.1
X/X
10%
6.47
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
23.4
2/2
6%
14.4
2/X
4%
22.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.4 — our 12% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
69%
-5.5pp
19%
Draw
19%
-0.4pp
18%
Away Win
12%
+5.9pp
40%
Under 2.5
45%
-5.6pp
60%
Over 2.5
55%
+5.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
44%
+10.9pp
45%
BTTS No
56%
-10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 15%
-3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.97/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.57
+5% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -5%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
378 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 76%
27.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.3
25.7 Crosses 16.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.43 xG 0.58
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
358 Passes 292
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.05.2025 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-1 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
22.09.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-1 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
14.06.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-0 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
28.08.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 0-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
23.04.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-2 HT 2-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
27.01.2021 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-1 HT 1-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
3-0
AWAY Vasco da Gama
2.00 xG 0.71
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 3
328 Passes 437
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
17 Box Touches 8
11 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras swept aside Vasco da Gama 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (60%) landed while both teams to score (55%) missed.

On the day, Palmeiras had 44% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 56%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 2.00 to 0.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Palmeiras and 0.50 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama?

Palmeiras 3-0 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 02/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 63%, draw 19%, Vasco da Gama 18%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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