Botafogo 2-1 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 2 Oct 2025

📅02/10/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
21%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.78
Over 2.5
49%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.98
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.66
6+ Goals
11%
15.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.48
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.35
X/1 EV+ ✗
24%
4.42
X/2
7%
8.35
X/X
10%
4.54
2/1
7%
25.0
2/2
8%
6.65
2/X
9%
14.6
Value flag · X/1 at 4.42 — our 24% vs market 17.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
50%
+3.3pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.5pp
21%
Away Win
23%
-1.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.4pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 26%
+1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -14%
1.34/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.60
+6% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -33%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
341 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 80%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
20.4 Crosses 15.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Bahia
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.47 xG 1.61
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
340 Passes 407
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.05.2025 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
25.08.2024 Bahia Bahia 0-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
08.08.2024 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BRK
31.07.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 1-1 HT 1-1 Bahia Bahia BRK
06.05.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 1-2 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
27.08.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 3-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
2-1
AWAY Bahia
1.47 xG 0.33
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
353 Passes 338
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 5
18 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo squeezed past Bahia 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Botafogo as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Botafogo had 51% of the ball to Bahia's 49%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.47 to 0.33.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Botafogo and 0.83 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Bahia?

Botafogo 2-1 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 02/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 53%, draw 25%, Bahia 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Botafogo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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