Bahia 1-0 Botafogo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 8 Aug 2024

📅08/08/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.38
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.67
Over 2.5
39%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.85
No
58%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
37%
2.69
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.36
6+ Goals
7%
22.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.69 — our 37% vs market 31.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.62
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
20%
5.17
X/2
13%
5.81
X/X
14%
3.95
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
14%
4.27
2/X
5%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
38%
-1.0pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.7pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+2.8pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+5.0pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-5.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
50%
-7.7pp
58%
BTTS No
50%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo EU Bookmakers 36%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
0.67/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.99/1.47
-19% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +82% / +26%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
320 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 78%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
14.7 Crosses 11.4
4.0 Yellow Cards 4.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Botafogo
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.55 xG 1.12
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
398 Passes 353
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.07.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 1-1 HT 1-1 Bahia Bahia BRK
06.05.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 1-2 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
27.08.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 3-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
25.04.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-2 HT 1-1 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
09.11.2020 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
01.10.2020 Botafogo Botafogo 1-2 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
1-0
AWAY Botafogo
1.27 xG 1.59
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 4
449 Passes 250
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Botafogo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia edged past Botafogo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 35%) promised a tight game; Bahia found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Bahia had 62% of the ball to Botafogo's 38%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.27 to 1.59.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Bahia and 1.33 for Botafogo.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Botafogo?

Bahia 1-0 Botafogo in the Brazil - Cup on 08/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Botafogo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Bahia 37%, draw 28%, Botafogo 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bahia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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