Lincoln City 4-1 Mansfield Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.47
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
25%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.43
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
24%
3.46
6+ Goals
11%
13.25
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.46 — our 24% vs market 23.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.76
1/2
5%
28.0
1/X
8%
13.05
X/1
19%
5.61
X/2
8%
5.47
X/X
10%
4.69
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
28.5
2/2
12%
3.62
2/X
7%
13.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.5 — our 13% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
37%
+13.5pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.9pp
25%
Away Win
36%
-11.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.7pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lincoln City EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Mansfield Town EU Bookmakers 40%
+9% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +51% / +51%
1.33/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.39
+12% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +54% / +23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
333 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 76%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
17.3 Crosses 21.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lincoln City
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Mansfield Town
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.71 xG 1.39
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
381 Passes 298
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 17
11 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2020 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 1-3 HT 0-1 Lincoln City Lincoln City İNTK
18.03.2019 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 1-1 HT 1-0 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN2
24.11.2018 Lincoln City Lincoln City 1-1 HT 0-0 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town İN2
04.09.2018 Lincoln City Lincoln City 1-2 HT 1-1 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town İNTK
06.03.2018 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN2
16.09.2017 Lincoln City Lincoln City 0-1 HT 0-0 Mansfield Town Mansfield Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lincoln City
4-1
AWAY Mansfield Town
1.37 xG 1.06
28% Ball Possession 72%
16 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
187 Passes 663
69% Pass Accuracy 88%
29 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lincoln City vs Mansfield Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lincoln City cruised past Mansfield Town 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lincoln City as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Lincoln City had 28% of the ball to Mansfield Town's 72%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.37 to 1.06.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mansfield Town led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lincoln City and 1.17 for Mansfield Town.

What was the final score of Lincoln City vs Mansfield Town?

Lincoln City 4-1 Mansfield Town in the England - 1st Division on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lincoln City vs Mansfield Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lincoln City win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Lincoln City 51%, draw 25%, Mansfield Town 25%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lincoln City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lincoln City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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