NK Varazdin 2-0 Slaven Belupo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
24%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.18
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.7
6+ Goals
9%
15.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 31% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
17%
2/1
13%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
50%
-1.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
24%
Away Win
24%
-0.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.9pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 28%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
1.34/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.28
-16% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +0%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
307 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 71%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
20.8 Crosses 17.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Slaven Belupo
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.43 xG 0.93
59% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
360 Passes 212
77% Pass Accuracy 67%
21 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
06.04.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-1 HT 0-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
26.01.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-2 HT 1-1 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
06.10.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 3-2 HT 2-2 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
28.07.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-2 HT 2-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
07.04.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 1-1 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
27.01.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-0 HT 0-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
2-0
AWAY Slaven Belupo
1.47 xG 0.49
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 0
2 Corners 6
334 Passes 293
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 9
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs Slaven Belupo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NK Varazdin got the better of Slaven Belupo 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had NK Varazdin as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 52% of the ball to Slaven Belupo's 48%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.47 to 0.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for NK Varazdin and 1.33 for Slaven Belupo.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs Slaven Belupo?

NK Varazdin 2-0 Slaven Belupo in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs Slaven Belupo?

Before kick-off our model rated a NK Varazdin win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 49%, draw 27%, Slaven Belupo 24%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NK Varazdin), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (NK Varazdin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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