Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 HNK Gorica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.27
Draw
19%
5.28
Away
16%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.51
Over 2.5
54%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.45
2-3 Goals
40%
2.0
4-5 Goals
26%
2.67
6+ Goals
10%
6.48
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
24%
X/2
5%
X/X
6%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
74%
-9.2pp
19%
Draw
16%
+2.6pp
16%
Away Win
10%
+6.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
36%
+10.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
64%
-10.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.2pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 12%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -7%
1.77/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.61/1.64
+14% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +14%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
439 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 74%
32.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.8
21.6 Crosses 13.4
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
4W-1D-1L
AWAY HNK Gorica
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.75 xG 0.41
65% Ball Possession 35%
19 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
508 Passes 228
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
34 Box Touches 8
20 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-2 HT 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
28.02.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 4-0 HT 2-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIRK
04.02.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 2-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
21.10.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
05.08.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 0-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
28.05.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 4-1 HT 2-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
2-1
AWAY HNK Gorica
1.97 xG 0.68
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 9
509 Passes 287
88% Pass Accuracy 80%
30 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Zagreb nicked a narrow win over HNK Gorica 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Dinamo Zagreb as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Dinamo Zagreb had 61% of the ball to HNK Gorica's 39%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 1.97 to 0.68 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Dinamo Zagreb's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.50 for HNK Gorica.

What was the final score of Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica?

Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 HNK Gorica in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Gorica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Zagreb 65%, draw 19%, HNK Gorica 16%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HIR More Croatia - 1. HNL
24 Aug 2024
19:15 NK Varazdin vs Slaven Belupo Analysis →