V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 Renofa Yamaguchi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.31
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.57
6+ Goals
10%
14.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 30% vs market 24.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
45%
-3.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.6pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Renofa Yamaguchi EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +10%
1.62/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.15
+21% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +4%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
326 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Renofa Yamaguchi
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
388 Passes 298
1 Yellow Cards 2
17.03.2024 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 0-1 HT 0-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
09.07.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-1 HT 0-1 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi JAP2
03.06.2023 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 1-1 HT 1-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
15.10.2022 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 0-1 HT 0-1 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi JAP2
22.05.2022 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 1-2 HT 0-2 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
25.09.2021 Renofa Yamaguchi Renofa Yamaguchi 1-3 HT 0-2 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
1-2
AWAY Renofa Yamaguchi
62% Ball Possession 38%
10 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 2
434 Passes 232
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs Renofa Yamaguchi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Renofa Yamaguchi squeezed past V-Varen Nagasaki 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was V-Varen Nagasaki at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 62% of the ball to Renofa Yamaguchi's 38%, shots finished 10-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 0.83 for Renofa Yamaguchi.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 Renofa Yamaguchi in the Japan - J2 League on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

Before kick-off our model rated a V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 41%, draw 27%, Renofa Yamaguchi 32%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✗ Under 2.5
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