Cracovia Krakow 3-2 Gornik Zabrze — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 24 Aug 2024

Cracovia Krakow
3-2 HT 1-2
Gornik Zabrze
📅24/08/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Cracovia Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
27%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.41
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
3.48
6+ Goals
9%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 29% vs market 23.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.04
1/2
5%
33.5
1/X
10%
12.5
X/1
17%
4.93
X/2
9%
6.71
X/X
11%
4.54
2/1
10%
26.0
2/2
13%
4.7
2/X
6%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
43%
+3.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
27%
Away Win
30%
-2.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.0pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cracovia Krakow v Gornik Zabrze — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cracovia Krakow EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 33%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +10%
1.39/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.29
+13% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -13%
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
303 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 77%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
24.7 Crosses 17.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3

Cracovia Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cracovia Krakow
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.06 xG 0.97
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
254 Passes 413
72% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.05.2024 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 5-0 HT 2-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
06.11.2023 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 1-0 HT 0-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
30.01.2023 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 2-0 HT 1-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
18.07.2022 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 0-2 HT 0-2 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
06.03.2022 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 3-0 HT 2-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
11.09.2021 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 2-2 HT 0-2 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL

Cracovia Krakow 3-2 Gornik Zabrze — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cracovia Krakow
3-2
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
1.39 xG 1.22
46% Ball Possession 54%
19 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
307 Passes 379
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 9
15 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cracovia Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cracovia Krakow nicked a narrow win over Gornik Zabrze 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Cracovia Krakow as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Cracovia Krakow had 46% of the ball to Gornik Zabrze's 54%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 1.39 to 1.22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cracovia Krakow had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.00 for Gornik Zabrze.

What was the final score of Cracovia Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze?

Cracovia Krakow 3-2 Gornik Zabrze in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cracovia Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cracovia Krakow win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Cracovia Krakow 47%, draw 27%, Gornik Zabrze 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cracovia Krakow) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cracovia Krakow) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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