Benfica 1-0 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
71%
1.18
Draw
18%
5.71
Away
11%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.13
No
55%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.44
2-3 Goals
37%
2.0
4-5 Goals
27%
2.67
6+ Goals
12%
6.52
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.34
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
30.0
X/1
25%
3.37
X/2
4%
29.0
X/X
8%
9.73
2/1
12%
24.45
2/2
3%
22.7
2/X
5%
29.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
71%
Home Win
80%
-8.3pp
18%
Draw
14%
+4.1pp
11%
Away Win
6%
+4.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
43%
+1.9pp
55%
BTTS No
57%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela EU Bookmakers 9%
-1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
2.88/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/2.18
+13% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +6%
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
483 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 74%
37.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.3
22.9 Crosses 12.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
4W-0D-0L
AWAY Estrela
3.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
3.27 xG 0.59
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
566 Passes 282
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
36 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.01.2024 Estrela Estrela 1-4 HT 1-2 Benfica Benfica POR
19.08.2023 Benfica Benfica 2-0 HT 0-0 Estrela Estrela POR
20.11.2022 Estrela Estrela 2-3 HT 1-2 Benfica Benfica PORLC
13.01.2021 Estrela Estrela 0-4 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
1-0
AWAY Estrela
1.35 xG 0.16
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 0
12 Corners 2
463 Passes 331
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
43 Box Touches 4
37 Crosses 5
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Estrela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica squeezed past Estrela 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 71%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Benfica had 58% of the ball to Estrela's 42%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 1.35 to 0.16.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 3.25 goals for Benfica and 0.75 for Estrela.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Estrela?

Benfica 1-0 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split Benfica 71%, draw 18%, Estrela 11%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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