Fakel 1-0 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.57
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
37%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.75
Over 2.5
43%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.96
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
15%
3.94
6+ Goals
12%
17.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.96 — our 34% vs market 28.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.98
1/2
13%
30.0
1/X
5%
13.25
X/1
15%
5.63
X/2
15%
5.3
X/X
13%
4.27
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
9%
3.66
2/X
6%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+2.6pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.1pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+0.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
53%
+4.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
47%
-4.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.4pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fakel EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 40%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
0.93/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.89
-36% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -43%
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
237 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 79%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
23.1 Crosses 18.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fakel
1W-2D-3L
AWAY FK Orenburg
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.37 xG 1.39
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
178 Passes 282
64% Pass Accuracy 74%
19 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.03.2024 Fakel Fakel 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
21.10.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-2 HT 0-1 Fakel Fakel RUS
21.09.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUK
29.08.2023 Fakel Fakel 0-1 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUK
22.04.2023 Fakel Fakel 1-3 HT 1-2 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
28.10.2022 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 4-1 HT 2-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fakel
1-0
AWAY FK Orenburg
0.40 xG 1.23
34% Ball Possession 66%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
121 Passes 305
59% Pass Accuracy 77%
14 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 33
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fakel vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fakel squeezed past FK Orenburg 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 25% / 37% — and on the day Fakel made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Fakel had 34% of the ball to FK Orenburg's 66%, shots finished 8-15, expected goals 0.40 to 1.23 — the balance of chances actually favoured FK Orenburg.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FK Orenburg led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Fakel and 1.50 for FK Orenburg.

What was the final score of Fakel vs FK Orenburg?

Fakel 1-0 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Premier League on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fakel vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fakel win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Fakel 38%, draw 25%, FK Orenburg 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fakel), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fakel) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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