Utrecht 4-1 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 24 Aug 2025

📅24/08/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.42
Draw
18%
4.49
Away
14%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.38
Over 2.5
57%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
24%
X/2
4%
X/X
8%
2/1
15%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
66%
+2.4pp
18%
Draw
19%
-1.3pp
14%
Away Win
15%
-1.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.8pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 18%
-5% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +0%
1.99/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.87
-17% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -17%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
396 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 75%
30.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
25.4 Crosses 15.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Utrecht
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Excelsior
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.06 xG 1.04
54% Ball Possession 46%
20 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
369 Passes 297
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
34 Box Touches 20
28 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.01.2024 Excelsior Excelsior 1-1 HT 0-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
12.11.2023 Utrecht Utrecht 2-2 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
25.01.2023 Utrecht Utrecht 1-0 HT 1-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
02.10.2022 Excelsior Excelsior 0-1 HT 0-1 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
23.02.2019 Utrecht Utrecht 0-0 HT 0-0 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
30.11.2018 Excelsior Excelsior 3-3 HT 3-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht
4-1
AWAY Excelsior
1.78 xG 1.31
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
333 Passes 338
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 17
POST-MATCH Utrecht vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utrecht swept aside Excelsior 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Utrecht as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Utrecht had 50% of the ball to Excelsior's 50%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.78 to 1.31.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Utrecht had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Utrecht and 1.00 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of Utrecht vs Excelsior?

Utrecht 4-1 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 24/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated a Utrecht win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Utrecht 68%, draw 18%, Excelsior 14%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Utrecht), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Utrecht) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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