Velez Sarsfield 2-0 Estudiantes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 24 Sep 2024

📅24/09/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.76
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
64%
1.56
Over
36%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.16
No
62%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1
38%
2.38
2-3
37%
1.78
4-5
17%
5.05
6+
8%
30.5
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.38 — our 38% vs market 35.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.42
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.45
X/1
11%
3.83
X/2
9%
9.0
X/X
16%
3.92
2/1
9%
30.0
2/2
12%
7.95
2/X
5%
16.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 64%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
46%
Home Win
52%
-6.6pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.0pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+6.4pp
64%
Under 2.5
60%
+3.5pp
36%
Over 2.5
40%
-3.5pp
38%
BTTS Yes
42%
-4.1pp
62%
BTTS No
58%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Velez Sarsfield The Market 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Estudiantes The Market 23%
+2% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -15%
1.31/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.23
+11% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -13%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
370 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 71%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
20.1 Crosses 19.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Velez Sarsfield
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Estudiantes
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.54 xG 1.40
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
336 Passes 268
77% Pass Accuracy 71%
21 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.05.2024 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 1-1 HT 0-1 Estudiantes Estudiantes ARJ
08.05.2023 Estudiantes Estudiantes 2-0 HT 0-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
17.10.2022 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 4-0 HT 1-0 Estudiantes Estudiantes ARJ
25.05.2022 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 4-0 HT 2-0 Estudiantes Estudiantes LKU
08.04.2022 Estudiantes Estudiantes 4-1 HT 2-1 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield LKU
07.03.2022 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 1-1 HT 1-0 Estudiantes Estudiantes ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Velez Sarsfield
2-0
AWAY Estudiantes
2.58 xG 0.62
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 1
297 Passes 326
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 10
16 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Velez Sarsfield beat Estudiantes 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Velez Sarsfield as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Velez Sarsfield had 49% of the ball to Estudiantes's 51%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 2.58 to 0.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Velez Sarsfield and 1.33 for Estudiantes.

What was the final score of Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes?

Velez Sarsfield 2-0 Estudiantes in the Argentina - Premier League on 24/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Velez Sarsfield win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Velez Sarsfield 46%, draw 28%, Estudiantes 26%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Velez Sarsfield), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Velez Sarsfield) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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