AZ Alkmaar 2-2 PEC Zwolle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 24 Sep 2025

AZ Alkmaar
2-2 HT 2-1
PEC Zwolle
📅24/09/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2025/2026

AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.33
Draw
15%
4.81
Away
16%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.18
2-3 Goals
36%
1.97
4-5 Goals
27%
2.6
6+ Goals
16%
6.27
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.55
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
18.85
X/1 EV+ ✗
32%
3.92
X/2
5%
16.3
X/X
5%
8.03
2/1
8%
19.65
2/2
6%
12.95
2/X
4%
21.55
Value flag · X/1 at 3.92 — our 32% vs market 20.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
71%
-1.3pp
15%
Draw
18%
-2.5pp
16%
Away Win
12%
+3.8pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+2.8pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-2.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.1pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AZ Alkmaar v PEC Zwolle — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 15%
-7% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
2.20/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/2.36
-3% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -4%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
415 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 74%
36.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.6
19.5 Crosses 11.7
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.0

AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
4W-1D-1L
AWAY PEC Zwolle
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.43 xG 1.15
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
418 Passes 323
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.02.2025 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-0 HT 1-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
20.09.2024 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-2 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
20.01.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-2 HT 0-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
24.09.2023 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 0-3 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
10.04.2022 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2-1 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
30.10.2021 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 3-2 HT 2-2 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL

AZ Alkmaar 2-2 PEC Zwolle — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
2-2
AWAY PEC Zwolle
2.49 xG 0.90
65% Ball Possession 35%
28 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 1
511 Passes 236
87% Pass Accuracy 74%
56 Box Touches 12
25 Crosses 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar and PEC Zwolle couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had AZ Alkmaar at 69% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%) came in.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 65% of the ball to PEC Zwolle's 35%, shots finished 28-8, expected goals 2.49 to 0.90.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.17 for PEC Zwolle.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?

AZ Alkmaar 2-2 PEC Zwolle in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 24/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 69%, draw 15%, PEC Zwolle 16%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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