Erzurumspor FK 1-3 Fatih Karagümrük — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 24 Nov 2024

📅24/11/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.85
2-3 Goals
44%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
4.19
6+ Goals
9%
20.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.01
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.2
X/1
14%
4.52
X/2
9%
6.67
X/X
15%
4.37
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
12%
5.18
2/X
7%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-2.5pp
31%
Draw
27%
+3.7pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-1.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.5pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzurumspor FK EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 32%
+11% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +15%
1.48/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.23
+19% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 77%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
18.8 Crosses 18.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzurumspor FK
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.49 xG 1.63
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
305 Passes 336
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2021 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 2-2 HT 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
30.10.2020 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 5-1 HT 3-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK TSL
10.03.2020 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-3 HT 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük T1L
03.11.2019 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-1 HT 0-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzurumspor FK
1-3
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
0.78 xG 1.38
59% Ball Possession 41%
9 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 3
289 Passes 166
78% Pass Accuracy 65%
13 Box Touches 15
9 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Erzurumspor FK vs Fatih Karagümrük
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük beat Erzurumspor FK 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Erzurumspor FK at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Erzurumspor FK had 59% of the ball to Fatih Karagümrük's 41%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 0.78 to 1.38.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Fatih Karagümrük led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Erzurumspor FK and 2.50 for Fatih Karagümrük.

What was the final score of Erzurumspor FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Erzurumspor FK 1-3 Fatih Karagümrük in the Turkey - 1st Division on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzurumspor FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzurumspor FK win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Erzurumspor FK 42%, draw 31%, Fatih Karagümrük 27%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Erzurumspor FK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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