Shabab Al Ahli 2-0 Al Gharafa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 24 Nov 2025

Shabab Al Ahli
2-0 HT 2-0
Al Gharafa
📅24/11/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
AFC Sampiyonlar League – 2025/2026

Shabab Al Ahli vs Al Gharafa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
72%
1.32
Draw
15%
4.81
Away
13%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.38
Over 2.5
64%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.85
No
47%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
4.76
2-3 Goals
40%
1.92
4-5 Goals
29%
2.68
6+ Goals
13%
6.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.54
1/2
3%
35.0
1/X
5%
19.65
X/1 EV+ ✗
28%
3.93
X/2
7%
17.75
X/X
3%
7.86
2/1
10%
21.25
2/2
3%
14.7
2/X
6%
22.7
Value flag · X/1 at 3.93 — our 28% vs market 20.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
73%
Home Win
71%
+1.3pp
15%
Draw
18%
-2.9pp
13%
Away Win
11%
+1.6pp
36%
Under 2.5
38%
-2.4pp
64%
Over 2.5
62%
+2.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.8pp
47%
BTTS No
50%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Shabab Al Ahli v Al Gharafa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shabab Al Ahli EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Gharafa EU Bookmakers 14%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.78/0.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/2.55
+38% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -32%
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
384 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 75%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.4
16.7 Crosses 13.0
0.3 Yellow Cards 1.7

Shabab Al Ahli vs Al Gharafa Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shabab Al Ahli
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Al Gharafa
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.81 xG 1.35
67% Ball Possession 33%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
545 Passes 228
88% Pass Accuracy 75%
27 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.08.2024 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-0 HT 0-0 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli AŞMP
18.04.2022 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli 8-2 HT 3-1 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa AŞMP
14.04.2022 Al Gharafa Al Gharafa 1-1 HT 1-0 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli AŞMP

Shabab Al Ahli 2-0 Al Gharafa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shabab Al Ahli
2-0
AWAY Al Gharafa
1.03 xG 0.83
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 8
383 Passes 166
84% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Shabab Al Ahli vs Al Gharafa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shabab Al Ahli beat Al Gharafa 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Shabab Al Ahli as the likeliest winner at 73%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Shabab Al Ahli had 63% of the ball to Al Gharafa's 37%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.03 to 0.83.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Shabab Al Ahli and 1.33 for Al Gharafa.

What was the final score of Shabab Al Ahli vs Al Gharafa?

Shabab Al Ahli 2-0 Al Gharafa in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 24/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shabab Al Ahli vs Al Gharafa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shabab Al Ahli win the most likely single outcome at about 73%, with the full match-result split Shabab Al Ahli 73%, draw 15%, Al Gharafa 13%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shabab Al Ahli) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Shabab Al Ahli) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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