Lincoln City 5-1 Peterborough United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.82
No
57%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.78
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
3.76
6+ Goals
9%
16.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 30% vs market 28.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
2.95
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.15
X/1
17%
4.76
X/2
13%
6.96
X/X
15%
4.32
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
13%
5.29
2/X
7%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-5.3pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.6pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+4.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.5pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lincoln City EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Peterborough United EU Bookmakers 31%
-4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +0%
1.07/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.43
-29% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
326 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 69%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
17.4 Crosses 20.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lincoln City
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Peterborough United
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.95 xG 1.29
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
228 Passes 430
70% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2024 Peterborough United Peterborough United 1-1 HT 0-1 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
27.01.2024 Lincoln City Lincoln City 0-0 HT 0-0 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
07.10.2023 Peterborough United Peterborough United 2-0 HT 0-0 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
18.03.2023 Lincoln City Lincoln City 0-3 HT 0-1 Peterborough United Peterborough United İN1
20.08.2022 Peterborough United Peterborough United 4-0 HT 3-0 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
01.05.2021 Peterborough United Peterborough United 3-3 HT 0-2 Lincoln City Lincoln City İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lincoln City
5-1
AWAY Peterborough United
2.22 xG 0.69
39% Ball Possession 61%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 2
238 Passes 441
71% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lincoln City vs Peterborough United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lincoln City swept aside Peterborough United 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; Lincoln City found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lincoln City had 39% of the ball to Peterborough United's 61%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 2.22 to 0.69.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Peterborough United led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Lincoln City and 2.17 for Peterborough United.

What was the final score of Lincoln City vs Peterborough United?

Lincoln City 5-1 Peterborough United in the England - 1st Division on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lincoln City vs Peterborough United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lincoln City win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Lincoln City 40%, draw 28%, Peterborough United 32%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lincoln City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lincoln City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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