Macarthur vs Melbourne City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Macarthur v Melbourne City — Team-Based Signals
Macarthur vs Melbourne City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-3
HT 0-0
Macarthur
AVUS
1-1
HT 1-0
Melbourne City
AVUS
6-1
HT 3-0
Macarthur
AVUS
0-1
HT 0-0
Melbourne City
AVUS
3-1
HT 2-1
Macarthur
AVUS
Macarthur 1-0 Melbourne City — Actual Match Statistics
Macarthur edged past Melbourne City 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Macarthur as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
On the day, Macarthur had 36% of the ball to Melbourne City's 64%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.72 to 0.92.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Macarthur and 2.33 for Melbourne City.
What was the final score of Macarthur vs Melbourne City?
Macarthur 1-0 Melbourne City in the Australia - A-League on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Macarthur vs Melbourne City?
Before kick-off our model rated a Macarthur win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Macarthur 42%, draw 27%, Melbourne City 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Macarthur) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.