Excelsior Maassluis 3-1 SV Spakenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Tweede Divisie, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
5.34
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
59%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.7
No
57%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
3%
X/2
18%
X/X
5%
2/1
3%
2/2
34%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
16%
+4.7pp
21%
Draw
20%
+0.7pp
59%
Away Win
64%
-5.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
55%
-11.3pp
57%
BTTS No
45%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Excelsior Maassluis EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY SV Spakenburg EU Bookmakers 69%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
0.58/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.10/0.96
-48% / +84% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -2%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
220 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 393 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Excelsior Maassluis
0W-1D-0L
AWAY SV Spakenburg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
35% Ball Possession 65%
10 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
24.02.2024 Excelsior Maassluis Excelsior Maassluis 1-1 HT 1-1 SV Spakenburg SV Spakenburg HOLTW
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Excelsior Maassluis
3-1
AWAY SV Spakenburg
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Excelsior Maassluis vs SV Spakenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Excelsior Maassluis got the better of SV Spakenburg 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had SV Spakenburg at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Excelsior Maassluis had 45% of the ball to SV Spakenburg's 55%, shots finished 10-9.

What was the final score of Excelsior Maassluis vs SV Spakenburg?

Excelsior Maassluis 3-1 SV Spakenburg in the Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Excelsior Maassluis vs SV Spakenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an SV Spakenburg win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Excelsior Maassluis 21%, draw 21%, SV Spakenburg 59%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (SV Spakenburg), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (SV Spakenburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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