Arba Minch Kenema 2-3 Fasil Ketema — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Etiyopya - Premier League, 25 Jan 2026

📅25/01/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.94
Draw
33%
2.7
Away
38%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
Over 2.5
37%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.51
No
55%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
12%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
18%
X/X
22%
2/1
4%
2/2
15%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
31%
-1.8pp
33%
Draw
34%
-0.5pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
36%
+9.8pp
55%
BTTS No
64%
-9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arba Minch Kenema EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Fasil Ketema EU Bookmakers 39%
-11% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
0.69/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/0.97
-29% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -13%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
262 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arba Minch Kenema
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Fasil Ketema
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
31% Ball Possession 69%
4 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
01.03.2025 Arba Minch Kenema Arba Minch Kenema 1-0 Fasil Ketema Fasil Ketema ETH
29.10.2024 Fasil Ketema Fasil Ketema 0-1 Arba Minch Kenema Arba Minch Kenema ETH
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arba Minch Kenema
2-3
AWAY Fasil Ketema
52% Ball Possession 48%
7 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Arba Minch Kenema vs Fasil Ketema
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fasil Ketema edged past Arba Minch Kenema 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 29% / 33% / 38% — and on the day Fasil Ketema made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arba Minch Kenema had 52% of the ball to Fasil Ketema's 48%, shots finished 7-9.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Arba Minch Kenema had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Arba Minch Kenema and 0.00 for Fasil Ketema.

What was the final score of Arba Minch Kenema vs Fasil Ketema?

Arba Minch Kenema 2-3 Fasil Ketema in the Etiyopya - Premier League on 25/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arba Minch Kenema vs Fasil Ketema?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fasil Ketema win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Arba Minch Kenema 29%, draw 33%, Fasil Ketema 38%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fasil Ketema) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Fasil Ketema) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ETH More Etiyopya - Premier League
25 Jan 2026
13:00 Hadiya Hosaena vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni Analysis →
15:00 Adama City vs Mekelle Kenema Analysis →
18:00 Bahardar vs Awassa Kenema Analysis →