Real Betis 3-1 Athletic Bilbao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.29
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
36%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.68
Over 2.5
39%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.74
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.26
6+ Goals
8%
21.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 34% vs market 30.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.58
1/2
8%
28.5
1/X
11%
14.1
X/1
15%
7.1
X/2
10%
4.43
X/X
14%
4.12
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.87
2/X
5%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
27%
+7.5pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.9pp
36%
Away Win
45%
-9.4pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+5.1pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-5.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.7pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Betis EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 49%
-8% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -4%
0.98/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.01
-21% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / +12%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
326 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 79%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
15.8 Crosses 20.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Betis
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.85 xG 1.26
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
333 Passes 346
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 24
12 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 3
27.08.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 4-2 HT 3-2 Real Betis Real Betis İS1
04.05.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-1 HT 0-1 Real Betis Real Betis İS1
29.12.2022 Real Betis Real Betis 0-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
13.03.2022 Real Betis Real Betis 1-0 HT 1-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
19.12.2021 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 3-2 HT 1-1 Real Betis Real Betis İS1
21.04.2021 Real Betis Real Betis 0-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Betis
3-1
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
1.23 xG 0.18
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 3
5 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 3
487 Passes 314
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 9
10 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Real Betis vs Athletic Bilbao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Betis beat Athletic Bilbao 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 30% / 36% — and on the day Real Betis made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Real Betis had 58% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 42%, shots finished 13-3, expected goals 1.23 to 0.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Real Betis and 1.17 for Athletic Bilbao.

What was the final score of Real Betis vs Athletic Bilbao?

Real Betis 3-1 Athletic Bilbao in the Spain - Primera Liga on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Betis vs Athletic Bilbao?

Before kick-off our model rated an Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Real Betis 34%, draw 30%, Athletic Bilbao 36%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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