Cagliari 1-1 Napoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 25 Feb 2024

Cagliari
1-1 HT 0-0
Napoli
📅25/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Cagliari vs Napoli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.69
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
47%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.59
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.34
6+ Goals
9%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.59 — our 29% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
6.41
1/2
9%
23.15
1/X
8%
14.6
X/1
12%
8.57
X/2
17%
4.17
X/X
12%
5.08
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.35
2/X
6%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
24%
+4.7pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.5pp
46%
Away Win
52%
-5.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.8pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cagliari v Napoli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cagliari EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Napoli EU Bookmakers 56%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +18%
1.15/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/1.05
-2% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +26%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
279 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 419 · 82%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
19.9 Crosses 14.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.0

Cagliari vs Napoli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cagliari
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Napoli
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.02 xG 2.24
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
292 Passes 512
77% Pass Accuracy 87%
17 Box Touches 36
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.12.2023 Napoli Napoli 2-1 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
21.02.2022 Cagliari Cagliari 1-1 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
26.09.2021 Napoli Napoli 2-0 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
02.05.2021 Napoli Napoli 1-1 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
03.01.2021 Cagliari Cagliari 1-4 HT 0-1 Napoli Napoli İTA
16.02.2020 Cagliari Cagliari 0-1 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA

Cagliari 1-1 Napoli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cagliari
1-1
AWAY Napoli
0.75 xG 1.29
29% Ball Possession 71%
8 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
122 Passes 487
56% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 18
27 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cagliari vs Napoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cagliari and Napoli couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Napoli at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Cagliari had 29% of the ball to Napoli's 71%, shots finished 8-9, expected goals 0.75 to 1.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Cagliari and 1.83 for Napoli.

What was the final score of Cagliari vs Napoli?

Cagliari 1-1 Napoli in the Italy - Serie A on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cagliari vs Napoli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Cagliari 28%, draw 25%, Napoli 46%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Napoli), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Napoli) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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