Milan 1-1 Atalanta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 25 Feb 2024

Milan
1-1 HT 1-1
Atalanta
📅25/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Milan vs Atalanta Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.78
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.22
6+ Goals
10%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.78 — our 26% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.18
1/2
6%
30.0
1/X
10%
12.3
X/1
14%
5.22
X/2
12%
6.41
X/X
5%
4.77
2/1
9%
25.5
2/2
17%
4.24
2/X
8%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.1pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.3pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+3.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+2.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-2.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.6pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Milan v Atalanta — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -14%
1.71/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.42
+14% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
374 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 80%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
18.2 Crosses 13.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.9

Milan vs Atalanta Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Atalanta
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.50 xG 1.37
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
405 Passes 349
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.01.2024 Milan Milan 1-2 HT 1-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTK
09.12.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 3-2 HT 1-1 Milan Milan İTA
26.02.2023 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 1-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
21.08.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 1-1 HT 1-0 Milan Milan İTA
15.05.2022 Milan Milan 2-0 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
03.10.2021 Atalanta Atalanta 2-3 HT 0-2 Milan Milan İTA

Milan 1-1 Atalanta — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
1-1
AWAY Atalanta
68% Ball Possession 32%
20 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
553 Passes 215
88% Pass Accuracy 73%
POST-MATCH Milan vs Atalanta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan and Atalanta shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Milan at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Milan had 68% of the ball to Atalanta's 32%, shots finished 20-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Milan and 1.33 for Atalanta.

What was the final score of Milan vs Atalanta?

Milan 1-1 Atalanta in the Italy - Serie A on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs Atalanta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Milan 42%, draw 24%, Atalanta 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Milan), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Milan) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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