Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 Standard Liege — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 25 Feb 2024

Union Saint-Gilloise
2-1 HT 2-0
Standard Liege
📅25/02/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Belgium - Pro League – 2023/2024

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Standard Liege Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.53
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
20%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.03
Over 2.5
61%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.82
No
44%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
3.85
2-3 Goals
35%
1.83
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.19
6+ Goals
18%
10.8
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.19 — our 29% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.89
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.65
X/1
15%
3.7
X/2
6%
11.85
X/X
11%
5.87
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
22.3
2/2
10%
9.26
2/X
5%
17.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 12% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
61%
-3.4pp
22%
Draw
22%
-0.6pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+3.9pp
39%
Under 2.5
45%
-6.3pp
61%
Over 2.5
55%
+6.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
51%
+5.1pp
44%
BTTS No
49%
-5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Union Saint-Gilloise v Standard Liege — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Standard Liege EU Bookmakers 20%
-7% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.89/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/2.04
-2% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -20%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
400 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 74%
30.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
21.2 Crosses 13.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.7

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Standard Liege Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Standard Liege
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.71 xG 1.40
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
327 Passes 312
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
04.08.2023 Standard Liege Standard Liege 0-1 HT 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
18.02.2023 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-4 HT 1-2 Standard Liege Standard Liege BEL
13.11.2022 Standard Liege Standard Liege 2-3 HT 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
03.04.2022 Standard Liege Standard Liege 1-3 HT 1-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
28.08.2021 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 4-0 HT 2-0 Standard Liege Standard Liege BEL
28.04.2017 Standard Liege Standard Liege 3-1 HT 2-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL

Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 Standard Liege — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
2-1
AWAY Standard Liege
1.62 xG 0.38
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
405 Passes 354
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Union Saint-Gilloise vs Standard Liege
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise edged past Standard Liege 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Union Saint-Gilloise as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Union Saint-Gilloise had 52% of the ball to Standard Liege's 48%, shots finished 12-7, expected goals 1.62 to 0.38 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Union Saint-Gilloise's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Union Saint-Gilloise and 1.67 for Standard Liege.

What was the final score of Union Saint-Gilloise vs Standard Liege?

Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 Standard Liege in the Belgium - Pro League on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Standard Liege?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Union Saint-Gilloise 58%, draw 22%, Standard Liege 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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