Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Alanyaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 25 Feb 2024

Fatih Karagümrük
1-1 HT 1-0
Alanyaspor
📅25/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Turkey - Super League – 2023/2024

Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.37
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.52
6+ Goals
12%
13.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 27% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.47
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.45
X/1
16%
4.3
X/2
13%
8.25
X/X
12%
4.73
2/1
8%
24.45
2/2
11%
6.21
2/X
6%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-4.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.0pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.2pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fatih Karagümrük v Alanyaspor — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Alanyaspor EU Bookmakers 27%
+8% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -5%
1.59/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.44
+26% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
365 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 77%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
17.2 Crosses 16.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Alanyaspor
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.35 xG 1.46
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
363 Passes 413
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 23
23 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.10.2023 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 2-1 HT 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
22.01.2023 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 2-2 HT 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
07.08.2022 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 2-4 HT 0-2 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
22.05.2022 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-1 HT 0-1 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
26.12.2021 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 1-1 HT 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
27.02.2021 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 HT 0-0 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL

Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Alanyaspor — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
1-1
AWAY Alanyaspor
1.01 xG 1.71
32% Ball Possession 68%
6 Total Shots 20
1 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 11
241 Passes 548
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
7 Box Touches 42
4 Crosses 41
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük and Alanyaspor couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Fatih Karagümrük at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Fatih Karagümrük had 32% of the ball to Alanyaspor's 68%, shots finished 6-20, expected goals 1.01 to 1.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alanyaspor led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.67 for Alanyaspor.

What was the final score of Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?

Fatih Karagümrük 1-1 Alanyaspor in the Turkey - Super League on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fatih Karagümrük vs Alanyaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fatih Karagümrük win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Fatih Karagümrük 45%, draw 25%, Alanyaspor 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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