Atalanta 4-1 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 25 Feb 2026

Atalanta
4 - 1 HT 2 - 0
Borussia Dortmund
📅25/02/2026 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Champions League – 2025/2026

Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
30%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under
42%
2.15
Over
58%
1.69
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
60%
1.54
No
40%
2.31
Total Goals
0-1
20%
3.96
2-3
45%
1.81
4-5
27%
2.95
6+
8%
9.19
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.93
1/2
3%
28.5
1/X
5%
12.85
X/1
15%
5.09
X/2
10%
6.65
X/X
15%
5.32
2/1
3%
22.65
2/2
17%
4.43
2/X
5%
13.25
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.

Atalanta v Borussia Dortmund — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Atalanta The Market 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund The Market 34%
Bad Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Weak
1.69 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.39
1.35 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.71
Bad Attack Strength Average
Weak Defense Strength Average
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
377 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 439 · 84%
22 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18
14 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2

Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atalanta
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.23 xG 1.67
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
316 Passes 449
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.02.2026 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-0 HT 2-0 Atalanta Atalanta ŞMP
22.02.2018 Atalanta Atalanta 1-1 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AVL
15.02.2018 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3-2 HT 1-0 Atalanta Atalanta AVL
01.08.2017 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 0-1 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta HAZ

Atalanta 4-1 Borussia Dortmund — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atalanta
4 - 1
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
2.93 xG 1.02
44% Ball Possession 56%
15 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 1
310 Passes 414
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 4
REVIEW Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Atalanta overpowered Borussia Dortmund 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atalanta as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. Nothing to argue with on goals either — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (60%) came home.

Under the surface, Atalanta had 44% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 56%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 2.93 to 1.02.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Atalanta and 1.50 for Borussia Dortmund.

Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund Result & Final Score

Atalanta 4 - 1 Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League on 25/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 45%, draw 25%, Borussia Dortmund 30%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atalanta) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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