Real Madrid vs Benfica Prediction — Model Probabilities
Real Madrid v Benfica — Team-Based Signals
Real Madrid vs Benfica Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
Real Madrid 2-1 Benfica — Actual Match Statistics
Real Madrid shaded a tight game against Benfica 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) came in.
The match data tells the story: Real Madrid had 56% of the ball to Benfica's 44%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 0.98 to 1.64 — on chances, Benfica could feel hard done by.
For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Benfica led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Real Madrid and 3.00 for Benfica.
Real Madrid vs Benfica Result & Final Score
Real Madrid 2 - 1 Benfica in the Champions League on 25/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Real Madrid vs Benfica Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Real Madrid 57%, draw 24%, Benfica 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.