25/03/2024
·
18:15
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-1
2nd Score
1-1
Bhutan vs Sri Lanka Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
Over 2.5
52%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
24%
2/X
8%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
31%
22%
Draw
25%
39%
Away Win
43%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Bhutan v Sri Lanka — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Bhutan
EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY
Sri Lanka
EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
47%
Ball Possession
53%
16
Total Shots
11
8
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
4
305 · 79%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
404 · 83%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Bhutan vs Sri Lanka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Bhutan beat Sri Lanka 2-0.
Our pre-match split (39% / 22% / 39%) promised a tight game; Bhutan found the edge the numbers couldn't.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
What was the final score of Bhutan vs Sri Lanka?
Bhutan 2-0 Sri Lanka in the Friendlies on 25/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Bhutan vs Sri Lanka?
Before kick-off our model rated a Bhutan win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Bhutan 39%, draw 22%, Sri Lanka 39%. The final score 2-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.
◐ Match Result — model had it level (39/22/39)
✗ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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HAZ
More Friendlies
25 Mar 2024